By Mark Pattison

WASHINGTON (CNS) – Results of a study by the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) said that the highest growth rates in Catholicism are in Africa and Asia.

“Overall, the global Catholic population has grown by 57 percent since 1980. However, this growth differs by region, with Europe’s Catholic population growing by just six percent while the number of Catholics in Africa grew by 238 percent,” said the report, “Global Catholicism: Trends and Forecasts.” “Differences between these two regions are largely attributable to differences in fertility rates over time.”

“Over the last 50 years, the proportion of the global population who are Catholic has remained remarkably steady at about 17.5 percent. Most demographers anticipate a global population exceeding 10 billion by 2100, up from 7.3 billion now. The ‘engine’ of population growth is no longer increasing numbers of children ­– it is extending life expectancies,” said the CARA report.

“If current trends continue, we can expect the global Catholic population to increase by about 372 million from 2015 to 2050. This would represent 29 percent growth during this period and result in the 2050 Catholic population numbering 1.64 billion.”

CARA looked at Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and Oceania.

“Arguably, the three most important indicators of ‘vitality’ for the Catholic Church are the number of Catholics, the number of parishes and the number of priests,” the study said.

“Since 1980, the church has had a net gain of nearly 15,300 parishes representing seven percent growth. However, with the population growing by 57 percent during this period, there has been a lag in constructing the brick and mortar of the church. In 1980 there were 3,759 Catholics per parish in the world. This figure now stands at 5,491 Catholics per parish.”

The study added, “In Asia and Africa, where the fastest growth in the Catholic population has occurred, the number of parishes had doubled since 1980. In the Americas, the number of parishes has increased by 25 percent and in Oceania they have ticked up by five percent. In Europe, the number of parishes has declined by 12 percent.”

The church had about 20,000 fewer priests in 2012 than it did in 1980, a drop of 17 percent. While the number of priests in Africa and Asia doubled, the Americas netted an increase of less than two percent, and Europe’s priest population skidded by 78,090, or 32 percent.

“In 2012, Europe was home to less than one in four Catholics,” or 23 percent, the study said. “Yet this region still has 55 percent of all Catholic parishes and 42 percent of all Catholic priests.”

In the Americas

“Latin America and the Caribbean have historically also had higher levels of fertility than Europe and North America, leading to strong growth in the number of Catholics in this region. In 1980 the TFR (total fertility rate) for Latin America and the Caribbean was 4.2. By 2012, this had declined to 2.18 – where Europe was in 1980,” the CARA report said. “Population growth in Latin America and the Caribbean will also soon stall as its TFR will likely fall below the replacement rate in the coming decades.”

The Catholic population in the Americas grew by 56 percent from 1980 to 2012 – outpacing population growth in the region overall, CARA said. The Catholic population in the Americas is expected to grow from 598.8 million now to 690.1 million in 2040, a hike of 22 percent, according to CARA. “This region is in need of many new parishes, with the ratio of Catholics per parish currently exceeding 10,000,” it said.

However, “the average percentage of an American country’s Catholics saying they attend Mass every week was 52 percent in the 1980s, 40 percent in the 1990s, 31 percent in the 2000s, and 29 percent since 2010,” the study said. Further “the numbers of sacraments celebrated per 1,000 Catholics in the Americas are all in decline,” it added.

“Perhaps the most challenging aspect for the Catholic Church in Europe is maintaining a sufficient number of clergy to staff its parishes and still serve a sizable and historic Catholic population,” it added. The average percentage of a European country’s Catholics saying they attend Mass every week has dipped from 37 percent in the 1980s to 20 percent since 2010. But the number of students enrolled in Catholic institutions of higher learning has more than doubled in Europe since 1980.

In Africa and Asia

The Catholic population in Africa has grown by 238 percent since 1980 and is approaching 200 million, CARA said, outstripping the growth in the number of priests, up 131 percent, and of parishes, up 112 percent. “If current trends in affiliation and differential fertility among religious groups continue, in 2040, 24 percent of Africans will be Catholic. This would result in a Catholic population of 460,350,000 in Africa,” the study said.

In 1980, Africa had fewer diocesan priests per parish than Europe does now. In 2012, according to the study, “there were nearly two diocesan priests per parish — providing the pastoral flexibility that few dioceses around the world could imagine.”

Asia’s numbers are less solid, it said, because of varying accounts of the number of Catholics in China, which has been put at anywhere from 9 million to 143 million. Still, with a doubling in Asia’s Catholic population from 62 million to 134 million, “the percentage of Asia’s population that is Catholic is growing slowly from 2.4 percent in 1980 to 3.2 percent in 2012,” the study said.

“The number of students enrolled in Catholic institutions of higher learning and kindergartens tripled since 1980,” the report added. “The total number of welfare institutions associated with the Catholic Church in Asia has increased by 119 percent since 1980.”

The trends and projections for Oceania, the smallest region covered in the study, were shown to be relatively stable.

CARA transcribed Vatican data from the “Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae” from 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2012, the latest year available. It also referenced statistics in the Vatican’s “Annuario Pontifico” when necessary. CARA used statistical forecasting to project future numbers.